Discover how trust, physical stores, and AI shopping are reshaping retail growth, customer experience, and holiday sales in 2026.
On October 15, the National Retail Federation forecast that U.S. holiday sales in November and December will grow 4.2% to $1.013 trillion, the first time its holiday forecast has crossed a trillion dollars. Deloitte expects holiday e-commerce to grow faster, between 7.5% and 8.4%. On the surface, it looks like a strong season.
One number from earlier this year explains why it may not feel that way inside many retailers. Salesforce reported that global digital traffic grew 18% in the second quarter of 2026, while order volume grew just 1%. Shoppers are looking more and buying at about the same rate. Getting attention is no longer the hard part. Earning the decision is.
A year ago, we argued that retail's future would be decided by trust, connection, and a blend of physical and digital experiences rather than by any single channel. Most of that argument has held up, and the 2026 data makes it sharper. One of our examples did not hold up, and it carries a lesson of its own.
The short version for a leadership team: plan this season, and next year, around three things. Make it easy to trust you before the sale, use stores and AI tools to close the gap between browsing and buying, and treat what happens after the purchase as part of the product.
What held up, and the example that did not
Customer connection matters, but it cannot carry a business with an unsustainable balance sheet.
In our 2025 post, we cited Claire's as a legacy brand reinventing itself by inviting Gen Z customers into product and store design. Two weeks before that post was published, on August 6, 2025, Claire's filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, its second filing since 2018. It announced the closure of 291 stores later that month and sold its North American business to the private holding company Ames Watson. We should have caught that, and we are correcting it here.
The lesson is useful for any board. Co-creation and community are real advantages, but they work on top of a sound business, not in place of one. Claire's was carrying roughly $690 million in funded debt when it filed, according to its bankruptcy disclosures as reported by Financier Worldwide. No amount of customer goodwill could restructure that. Brand strategy and financial strategy have to be reviewed together, especially going into a season where margins are under pressure from tariffs and inflation.
Retail, holiday 2026
Earn trust before, during and after the sale.
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Before Marketing, e-commerce
Be easy to trust.
Accurate product information, steady reviews and clear return and shipping policies everywhere shoppers look.
88% call trust in a brand an important reason to buy.
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During Stores, digital product
Close the gap between browsing and buying.
Knowledgeable staff, product pages that answer real questions and a simple checkout.
Global online traffic rose 18% in the second quarter. Orders rose 1%.
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After Customer experience
Make the experience better than the purchase.
Easy returns, honest service and follow-up that helps rather than sells.
43% now rely more on real people for shopping recommendations.
The lesson from 2025
Customer connection works on top of a sound business, not in place of one.
Sources: Edelman, June 2026, survey in 15 countries. Salesforce, via Talk Business & Politics, September 2026, global Q2 2026 data. Gartner, September 22, 2026, survey of US consumers.
Stores are carrying more of the growth
Physical retail is not just surviving. For some brands, it is now the engine.
Warby Parker, which started online, is the clearest current example of the blend we described. In its second quarter of 2026, reported on August 6, total revenue grew 9.8% to $235.5 million. Retail revenue grew 13.6%, while e-commerce revenue was essentially flat, down 0.3%, partly because the company ended its Home Try-On program. Warby Parker opened 15 net new stores in the quarter, ending with 352, and is on pace for 50 openings this year. Eye exams, now offered in about 90% of its stores, grew more than 30%.
Management also said store traffic was softer than it would like, but that stores showed strong conversion, high average order values, and some of the company's highest customer satisfaction scores. That is the same pattern Salesforce saw online, from the other direction. People who walk into a store are closer to a decision, and a good store experience helps them make it.
The so-what for leadership is that stores should be measured on more than revenue per square foot. For many brands, a store is now where trust is built through service, fitting, advice, or an exam, and that trust shows up in conversion and order value across every channel.
Trust is now a purchase criterion on par with quality
Shoppers say trust matters almost as much as the product itself.
Edelman's 2026 Trust Barometer Special Report on brands, published in June and based on 17,688 respondents in 15 countries, found that 88% of consumers call trust in a brand an important or critical reason to buy. That is nearly level with product quality, at 89%. When asked what most shapes that trust, 41% pointed to what unpaid people say about a brand, compared with 20% who pointed to what the brand says about itself.
Gartner's September 2026 survey of 1,006 U.S. consumers adds context. 65% said brands are producing too much AI-generated marketing content, 57% said that content made them trust brand messaging less, and 43% said they now rely more on real people for recommendations. In practical terms, reviews, staff advice, creator content, and word of mouth are carrying more weight with shoppers than brand-produced volume.
This replaces several statistics in our 2025 post that we could not trace to a primary source. The direction of our argument was right. The 2026 data is stronger and better documented.
AI is changing how shoppers arrive
AI tools are compressing the research stage, which raises the value of accurate product information and a strong reputation.
Adobe Analytics reported that traffic from AI tools to U.S. retail sites was up 62% in July 2026 compared with a year earlier, and that those visitors converted to purchases at a rate 60% higher than visitors from other sources. Shoppers who have already compared options in an AI conversation arrive closer to a decision, much like shoppers who walk into a store.
At the same time, McKinsey's State of the Consumer 2026 report found that only 1% of the sources AI tools cite for consumer goods questions are brand-owned websites. AI tools rely mostly on reviews, retailer listings, forums, and publishers. And Salesforce reports that 28% of Gen Z shoppers plan to shop through social apps this holiday season, up from 25% a year ago. The common thread is that more of the path to purchase now runs through places a brand does not control.
Our 2025 post described AI as a tool for reducing friction, not replacing judgment. That still holds. What has changed is that AI is now also a front door, and the brands that show up well there are the ones with clean product data and a strong record of what other people say about them. We cover the search side of this in more detail in "Ecommerce SEO and AI Search in 2026" and "Black Friday 2026 in Search and AI Search."
The numbers behind the season
2026 holiday outlook
Online traffic rose 18%. Orders rose 1%.
Holiday sales are forecast to pass $1 trillion, but the gap between browsing and buying is wide. Shoppers who arrive from AI convert better, and 88% call trust in a brand an important reason to buy.
| Finding | Figure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 holiday forecasts · US | ||
| Holiday retail sales forecast, November and December, up 4.2% | $1.013 trillion | NRF, October 15, 2026 |
| Holiday e-commerce growth forecast, November through January | +7.5–8.4% | Deloitte, September 2026 |
| Browsing versus buying | ||
| Global digital traffic versus order volume, Q2 2026 | +18% vs +1% | Salesforce, September 2026 |
| Conversion of AI-referred US retail visits versus other visits, July 2026 | +60% | Adobe Analytics, August 19, 2026 |
| Warby Parker retail versus e-commerce revenue growth, Q2 2026; e-commerce fell after the company ended its Home Try-On program | +13.6% vs −0.3% | Warby Parker Q2 2026 results, August 6, 2026 |
| Trust and social | ||
| Consumers who call brand trust an important or critical purchase criterion, just behind quality at 89% | 88% | Edelman, June 2026 |
| Gen Z (ages 18 to 29) planning to shop through social apps this holiday season, up from 25% in 2025 | 28% | Salesforce, September 2026 |
Forecasts are not adjusted for inflation. NRF’s figure excludes auto dealers, gas stations and restaurants. Salesforce’s traffic figures are global and Edelman surveyed 15 countries; the other figures cover the US.
Forecasts are projections, survey figures reflect stated attitudes, and company results reflect one business. Read them as direction, not guarantees.
A simple way to organize the work: before, during, and after
Each stage of the purchase needs a different kind of trust, and usually a different team.
I group the work into three moments, because each one tends to belong to a different part of the organization, and naming them makes ownership clear.
Before the sale: be easy to trust. This is about what a shopper finds when they research you, whether on Google, in an AI tool, on social apps, or from a friend. Accurate product information, steady reviews, and clear policies on returns and shipping do most of the work. This usually belongs to marketing and ecommerce.
During the sale: close the gap between browsing and buying. The Salesforce data says interest is not the problem. Conversion is. Stores with knowledgeable staff, product pages that answer real questions, and a simple checkout are where that gap closes. This usually belongs to retail operations and digital product teams.
After the sale: make the experience better than the purchase. Fast, honest service, easy returns, and follow-up that helps rather than sells are what turn a holiday buyer into a repeat customer, and what produce the reviews and recommendations that drive the next sale. This usually belongs to customer experience, with marketing supporting.
Owned channels, such as email, SMS, and your own social accounts, connect all three. Used well, they are where a brand can speak to people who already chose to hear from it, without competing in an ad auction. Used only for discounts, they train customers to wait for the next one.
What this likely means over the next 6 to 18 months
Expect the gap between attention and conversion to stay wide, and the value of trust to keep rising.
If current trends hold, shoppers will keep researching across more places, including AI tools, social apps, and stores, before they buy. That likely means more traffic for most retailers without a matching rise in orders, which raises the value of whatever helps people decide, from store staff to reviews to accurate product data. NRF has noted that inflation and tariffs are contributing to nominal sales growth this year, so margin pressure is also likely to continue. Brands that pair a strong customer relationship with disciplined finances, the lesson from Claire's, are likely to be in the best position.
If you want to see how ready your brand is to be found and recommended in AI shopping results, Camino5's AEO Ready Score is a good place to start.
How to start today
Compare your site traffic growth with your order growth for the last two quarters. If traffic is rising faster than orders, as it is for much of the industry, your priority this season is conversion, not more reach.
Read your 50 most recent reviews and list the three most common complaints. Fix or address the top one before Black Friday on November 27, because those reviews are what shoppers and AI tools will read.
Check that your return policy, shipping cutoffs, and holiday hours are stated the same way on your site, your Google Business Profile, and your marketplace listings. Inconsistent policy information is a common reason shoppers hesitate.
If you have stores, give staff a one-page guide to the five questions shoppers ask most about your top products. Stores convert well when staff can answer quickly and confidently.
Plan one post-purchase email for holiday buyers that helps them use or care for what they bought, with no discount attached. As a practical starting point, send it within a week of delivery; it is a working rule, not a benchmark.
Retail in 2026 is not short on attention; it is short on reasons to decide, and the brands that give shoppers those reasons, before, during, and after the sale, are the ones that will keep them.
Sources
Retail Dive, "NRF forecasts 4.2% holiday sales growth, muted seasonal hiring," October 15, 2026
Talk Business & Politics, Salesforce and eMarketer holiday forecasts, September 2026
Warby Parker, "Warby Parker Announces Second Quarter 2026 Results," August 6, 2026
Nasdaq, "Warby Parker Q2 Earnings Call Highlights," August 2026
Financier Worldwide, "Claire's enters Chapter 11," October 2025
Edelman, 2026 Trust Barometer Special Report: Brand Growth in an Insular World, June 2026
McKinsey & Company, "State of the Consumer 2026," June 22, 2026